辽宁省数字地震前兆观测资料评价及其应用     

王海燕  王玉莹 《东北地震研究》2002,18(3):74-80

本文利用多种数学方法对“九五”期间辽宁省地震前兆台网数字化改造后的观测资料进行了分析处理,并对各测项数据进行了质量评价。分析认为,数字观测资料在精度,数据稳定性和可靠性等各方面均达到预报指标要求。  相似文献   

地理坐标下网格化数据等值线的处理及编程   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李圣强  姜立新  李闽峰  杨满栋  米宏亮 《山西地震》2002,(2):20-23

分析了均匀网格化数据等值线处理的具体步骤 ,介绍了非均匀网格分布数据的均匀网格化处理中的 3种方法 :按距离加权的最小二乘法 (N— P法 )、按方位取点加权法和加权最小二乘法拟合法 (M— S法 ) ,提供了 N— P法和 M— S法的 C 源程序  相似文献   

山西地下水氡中短期异常识别标志及预报方法研究     

范雪芳  张淑亮  李俊拴 《山西地震》2002,(1):20-22,32

采用“九五”地震科技攻关地下水化学及 EIS2 0 0 0提供的多种数据处理和异常识别方法 ,对山西省地下水氡观测资料进行了较详细的处理 ,筛选出较好的数据处理方法和异常标志。结果表明 ,除常规的数学处理方法外 ,用水氡的基值变化率和滑动变化率提取异常效果较好 ,如果基值变化率 R0 ≥ 0 .0 6 ,持续时间大于等于 12个月 ,滑动变化率 R≥ 0 .0 5 ,持续时间大于等于 12个月 ,则视为异常  相似文献   

流域地理景观的GIS数据三维可视化   总被引：17，自引：1，他引：16  

袁艳斌  张勇传  王乘  袁晓辉 《地球科学进展》2002,17(4):497-501

应用以"GIS"为核心的空间信息技术,是开展"数字流域"工程建设自然和最佳的选择。结合"清江流域水文水情与洪水演进仿真系统"的具体研制,分析流域地理数据特点及传统GIS在"数字流域"建设中的优缺点,在应用传统GIS二维方式展示形式管理和预处理先期各类基础流域地理空间数据及其相应属性数据的基础上,为满足仿真系统系列三维可视化要求,建立面向流域空间实体对象的数据模型,定义流域地理空间对象数据结构,将流域地理常规的GIS数据以三维形式展示,在实际的系统开发过程中,取得较好的三维可视化效果,并可满足"数字清江"建设各阶段综合处理、分析、评价、决策以及可视化等方面的需求。  相似文献   

La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale     

Jean-Claude Andr  Jean-Yves Caneill  Michel Dqu  Philippe Rogel  Laurent Terray  Yves Tourre 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2002,334(16):1115

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.  相似文献   

地质灾害的非线性数据处理与建模技术   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

许强  黄润秋 《山地学报》2000,18(Z1):123-127

本文简略地介绍了几种地质灾害数据处理与建模的非线性方法,主要包括GMDH自组织建模技术、神经网络方法。GMDH是一种高阶非线性回归建模方法,它是以简单的二元二次回归方程为基础,通过"代复一代"的"生产"过程,客观、自动地求得实际资料的非线性模型。而神经网络则是用工程技术手段模拟生物神经网络的结构特征和功能特征的一类人工系统。与常规统计方法相比,神经网络最突出的优点为它是通过对网络的学习和训练,来掌握变量之间的非线性关系。因此,其处理复杂问题的能力更强大。实例检验效果表明,这些非线性数据处理与建模技术考虑了地质灾害问题的非线性特性,其比基于常规统计理论的数据处理方法的精度要高得多。  相似文献   

Research on the security of national geospatial data clearinghouse based on ASP     

ZHANG Li GONG Jianya ZHU QingZHANG Li  Ph.D.Candidate  National Laboratory for Information Engineering in Surveying  Mapping  Remote Sensing  WTUSM  Luoyu Road  Wuhan  China 《地球空间信息科学学报》2000,3(3):47-51

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A modified ISBA surface scheme for modeling the hydrology of Athabasca River Basin with GCM-scale data     

Ernst Kerkhoven  Thian Yew Gan 《Advances in water resources》2006

A soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model (SVAT), interactions between the soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) of Météo France, is modified and applied to the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) to model its water and energy fluxes. Two meteorological datasets are used: the archived forecasts from the Meteorological Survey of Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) and the European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40), representing spatial scales typical of a weather forecasting model and a global circulation model (GCM), respectively. The original treatment of soil moisture and rainfall in ISBA (OISBA) is modified to statistically account for sub-grid heterogeneity of soil moisture and rainfall to produce new, highly non-linear formulations for surface and sub-surface runoff (MISBA). These new formulations can be readily applied to most existing SVATs. Stand alone mode simulations using the GEM data demonstrate that MISBA significantly improves streamflow predictions despite requiring two fewer parameters than OISBA. Simulations using the ERA-40 data show that it is possible to reproduce the annual variation in monthly, mean annual, and annual minimum flows at GCM scales without using downscaling techniques. Finally, simulations using a simple downscaling scheme show that the better performance of higher resolution datasets can be primarily attributed to improved representation of local variation of land cover, topography, and climate.  相似文献   

Efficient seismic response data storage and transmission using ARX model‐based sensor data compression algorithm     

Yunfeng Zhang  Jian Li 《地震工程与结构动力学》2006,35(6):781-788

This paper presents a linear predictor (LP)‐based lossless sensor data compression algorithm for efficient transmission, storage and retrieval of seismic data. Auto‐Regressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model is selected as the model structure of LP. Since earthquake ground motion is typically measured at the base of monitored structures, the ARX model parameters are calculated in a system identification framework using sensor network data and measured input signals. In this way, sensor data compression takes advantage of structural system information to maximize the sensor data compression performance. Numerical simulation results show that several factors including LP order, measurement noise, input and limited sensor number affect the performance of the proposed lossless sensor data compression algorithm concerned. Generally, the lossless data compression algorithm is capable of reducing the size of raw sensor data while causing no information loss in the sensor data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Influence of long‐period filter cut‐off on elastic spectral displacements     

Sinan Akkar  Julian J. Bommer 《地震工程与结构动力学》2006,35(9):1145-1165

The effect of the long‐period filter cut‐off, T_c, on elastic spectral displacements is investigated using a strong ground‐motion database from Europe and the Middle East. The relation between the filter and oscillator responses is considered to observe the influence of T_c for both analogue and digital records, and the variations with site classification, magnitude, filter order and viscous damping. Robust statistics are derived using the re‐processed European data to generalize the effects of the long‐period filter cut‐off on maximum oscillator deformation demands as a function of these seismological and structural features. Statistics with a 95% confidence interval are derived to suggest usable period ranges for spectral displacement computations as a function of T_c. The results indicate that the maximum period at which spectral displacements can be confidently calculated depend strongly on the site class, magnitude and filter order. The period range where reliable long‐period information can be extracted from digital accelerograms is twice that of analogue records. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献